bluebird bio: This Winner Has A Bright 2018 Outlook

Summary

Shares have more than doubled since my initial February piece.

Below, I recap my prior bullish thesis, as well as outline several important developments that have taken place since.

bluebird continues to be my top pick in the CAR-T space, with peak sales of bb2121 estimated to be above $3 billion.

I look forward to ASH updates and am optimistic on the story in 2018. I do note that investors should beware potential post-meeting sell-offs that can occur even with positive data.

Readers who have done their due diligence and are interested in the story are encouraged to take advantage of volatility and dips to initiate a pilot position and add on weakness.

Shares of bluebird bio (NASDAQ:BLUE) have more than doubled since my initial February piece stating shares were set to fly higher, and have risen by around 50% since my August update.

BLUE data by YCharts

Previously mentioned keys to the bullish thesis included the following:

  • Data for Lenti-D in Cerebral Adrenoleukodystrophy was positive and approval likely, with peak sales of around $200 million in this indication appearing tiny. However, I pointed out that the real boost would come from the added credibility for getting the company’s first treatment across the finish line.
  • For LentiGlobin in transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT) and severe sickle cell disease, I stated that in the first condition, new data from the HGB-205 study showcased the durability of benefit of the drug candidate. With regard to the latter indication, I remained optimistic that manufacturing improvements and modifications to treatment protocol would pay off. Additionally, I pointed out that stabilization of in vivo VCN compared favorably to that of patients from the HGB-206 initial cohort. I noted both settings represent blockbuster indications whose combined peak sales could exceed $3 billion if the drug reached the finish line.
  • I stated my firm belief that after the $11.9 billion takeover of Kite Pharma, funds would rotate into bluebird bio as the new CAR-T play of choice. Impressive data consisting of strong efficacy and a differentiated safety profile made this one somewhat of a no-brainer. To date, no dose-limiting toxicities had been observed.

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bluebird bio: This Winner Has A Bright 2018 Outlook

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