Your Daily Pharma Scoop: Celgene Upside, Erytech Tumbles, Novartis Neulasta Biosimilar


Celgene has significant upside in the next one year.

Erytech has tumbled on GRASPA failure in mid-stage study in AML.

Novartis announces data for propsed Neulasta biosimilar.

This abridged “Daily Scoop” is published by Avisol Capital Partners, which runs the physician-managed Total Pharma Tracker healthcare investment research service on Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Total Pharma Tracker subscribers get the full version with actionable ideas one day earlier.


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Analysis of top Seeking Alpha coverage: Celgene

Today we will discuss an article on Celgene (CELG) by Robert Riesen, titled, “Celgene: Easily The Best Valued Big Pharma Company.

Celgene continues to struggle after the substantial drop in October following the setback with one of its promising pipeline candidate and the downward revision to its long-term revenue guidance. At the time, we had noted that the second sharp pullback in Celgene, which came after the downward revision to long-term revenue guidance, was an overreaction. The downward revision came after the company announced that it will discontinue GED-0301 program. We believe that the bad news was already reflecting in the stock after the pullback post the GED-0301 program update. The second sell-off was more of a panic selling and therefore presented an excellent opportunity to go long on CELG, especially for investors with a long-term horizon.

While GED-0301 was one of the pillars on which Celgene was looking to diversify its revenue sources, it does have another late-stage candidate in Ozanimod with significant potential. If approved in all three targeted indications, Celgene expects Ozanimod to generate peak sales of between $5 billion and $6 billion.

Riesen notes in his article that the 30% drop in CELG since October represents a major opportunity to buy. The author notes that while the company revised its revenue forecast downwards, it still looks impressive. The company still expects to generate revenue of between $19 billion and $20 billion in 2020. Even at the lower end of this guidance, CELG is currently trading at just above 4x 2020 sales. This is well below the long-term average for biotech companies and we believe that CELG could cover a lot of lost ground over the next 12 months.

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Your Daily Pharma Scoop: Celgene Upside, Erytech Tumbles, Novartis Neulasta Biosimilar

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